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Which way will the states swing?

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WASHINGTON — In the final days of the 2016 campaign, Hillary Clinton holds advantages over Donald Trump in just enough states to win her the White House — if she can hold them on Election Day.

But Clinton’s national lead appears to have narrowed in the last two weeks, and Clinton’s winning map appears more fragile than it once did.

The Associated Press this week moves New Hampshire from leaning Democratic to a toss-up, Arizona and Iowa from a toss-up to leaning Republican, Virginia from strong Democratic to leaning Democratic, and Texas from leaning Republican to strong Republican.

The analysis is of the map as it stands today. It considers preference polling, recent electoral history, demographic trends and campaign priorities such as advertising, travel and on-the-ground staff.

SOLID DEMOCRATIC: California, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, Maryland, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington state (200 total electoral votes).

LEANS DEMOCRATIC: Colorado, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Virginia (74 total electoral votes).

TOSS-UP: Florida, Maine 2nd District, Nebraska 2nd District, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Utah (74 total electoral votes).

LEANS REPUBLICAN: Alaska, Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, Missouri (46 total electoral votes).

SOLID REPUBLICAN: Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, West Virginia, Wyoming (144 total electoral votes).

CBS News is tracking some of those battleground states.

In Ohio and Florida the races are tight and the trend line is toward Donald Trump. Trump has the narrowest of leads — up one point in Ohio, and Florida is even. Trump’s most likely electoral map all but requires him to win both these states, in addition to others.

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Clinton is up eight in Pennsylvania — a state critical to Trump’s electoral math — and has a three-point lead in both North Carolina and Colorado. Trump keeps his two-point edge in Arizona.

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